11/23/15: Thanksgiving Week Weather

High pressure is moving in behind a weak warm front that passed through North Dakota overnight.

7:00 AM Surface Analysis
7:00 AM Surface Analysis

 

Yesterday, much of North Dakota recorded maximums in the 40s and 50s.  The Red River Valley and northwestern Minnesota was a bit cooler.  There were two reasons for that, first, there was still some residual snow cover that needed to be melted, lowering the air temperature, and second, the warm front only was near the Red River as the sun was setting not allowing locations along or east of the Red River to get into the warmer air mass.

Sunday, November 22, 2015 Maximums
Sunday, November 22, 2015 Maximums

 

Maximums today (Monday) are expected to be similar to yesterday in eastern North Dakota and touch cooler in western North Dakota.   Meaning 35 to 40° east and 40 to 45° west.  Tuesday looks similar.

On Wednesday a cold front associated with a Low Pressure center tracking through southern Canada will move through North Dakota.  Behind the front, a stiff northwest wind is expected to develop with some snow showers.  At this time, the snow is not expected to cause any serious problems to travel.

Wednesday, November 25, 2015 Surface Prog.
Wednesday, November 25, 2015 Surface Prog.

 

As the front moves farther south, a disturbance coming will move along the front from Nebraska into Lake Superior.  This means more moisture is expected across far southeastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota and points southward.  It appears that precipitation will start as rain and transition to snow.  If any significant travel difficulties develop it would likely be from North Platte, Nebraska to Sioux Falls, South Dakota to the Twin Cities in Minnesota through Wisconsin as that rain/snow mix develops.  Otherwise, just colder air will be in place of the Thanksgiving Weekend.

Thursday, 6 PM Surface Analysis with Precipitation
Thursday, 6 PM Surface Analysis with Precipitation

After the later Wednesday into Thursday precipitation the next threat looks to be sometime early next week, although, no major storms are foreseen.  Colder than average temperatures (although not by much) overall for the next 7 days.

Daryl Ritchison