1/20/15: Delayed Cold

Another Clipper system with an inverted trough is currently situated near Aberdeen moving to the southeast.  Behind it is another weak area of low pressure in southeastern Saskatchewan.  There is also a cold front just north of the US / Canadian border.  It is behind this front that colder air should arrive for a couple of days this week (Wednesday and Thursday) before another spell of warmer air Friday into Saturday, will cooler air back behind that wave.

7:00 AM Surface Analysis
7:00 AM Surface Analysis

If that pattern sounds familiar, it has been the general rule much of this winter.  For today light snow will end very quickly west of the Missouri River this morning, meaning mainly the southeastern quarter of North Dakota will be recording any snowfall, generally around 1.5 inches or less will fall but there has been some higher totals in the higher elevations in western North Dakota.  Tonight that area of low pressure in Saskatchewan will drop south with another threat of some light snow across much of North Dakota with the possible exception of the northern Red River Valley, but amounts look even lighter than what will occur today.

projected Tuesday radar returns
Projected Tuesday radar returns

After a dry and slightly cooler period on Wednesday and Thursday, another clipper system this weekend will at first bring in some mild air, then back to slightly colder air early next week. The core of the cold air that seemed poised to move into the upper Midwest seems to staying just to the north and east of the area for the next week.

Jetstream Analysis this morning.
Jetstream Analysis this morning.

The upper level flow will likely stay northwesterly, but yet, still have a Pacific origin keeping the bitterly cold away.  There are reasons why a more below average cold will arrive next week, but the projected below average cold for this week just does not seem to be occurring.

Tuesday January 27, projected JetStream
Tuesday January 27, projected JetStream

 

Therefore, short term, above average, although Wednesday and Thursday slightly cooler than past few days, next week trending colder into early February.  After the next 24 hours, main threat of snow will come this weekend, currently timing suggest Saturday.

Daryl Ritchison