1/21/15: Back and Forth

A cold front passed through North Dakota and northern Minnesota overnight.  Cooler air will be advecting into the region over the course of the day.  The cold front has already stalled in far western North Dakota up through Saskatchewan and fronts that are not moving much are referenced as stationary fronts.    It is that front that is expected to push to the east and bring back the warmer air (warm front) that was in the area the past few days back to the region.

Morning Surface Analysis
Morning Surface Analysis

 

With high pressure centered near Bottineau this morning, the wind is light and variable in north central North Dakota, but there is still a brisk northerly wind in the Red River Valley that should diminish slowly during the day.

Morning Wind Speed and Direction
Morning Wind Speed and Direction

The colder air is most evident in northeastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota this morning and with colder air filtering in from Canada, temperatures will likely change little over the course of the day, but a small increase in the temperature is expected.

Morning Temperatures
Morning Temperatures

 

Beyond today, warmer temperatures are expected tomorrow although, eastern North Dakota will not get into the core of the warmer air until the evening hours, meaning tomorrow the temperatures in western ND will be noticeably warmer than in eastern ND.  Probably 30s to lower 40s in western ND and mainly 20s in the east.    The wind will be much stronger with 15-30 mph wind from the west to southwest expected, but it is that west/southwest wind that will help maximize the high temperature potential for the area.   The Red River Valley will record a more southerly wind tomorrow and that is one reason why temperatures there will be cooler than other parts of North Dakota tomorrow.

Wind Direction and Speed Estimates for Thursday
Wind Direction and Speed Estimates for Thursday

Today, Thursday and Friday are all looking dry (perhaps some flurries), with the next threat of snowfall (or starting as rain and turning to snow) for the area on Saturday into Saturday night.   The clipper system over the weekend does not look to be bringing in any permanent cold directly behind it, but a slow transition to cold still seems to be developing as we end the month that will linger into early February.

 

 

 

 

Projected 850 mb (around 4000 feet aloft) temperature anomalies for Friday January 30, 2015
Projected 850 mb (around 4000 feet aloft) temperature anomalies for Friday January 30, 2015

Until then, albeit a bit cooler today, above average temperature are expected for the next 6 days.

Daryl Ritchison