11/30/15: 24 Hours of Snow–then back to Dry and Mild

An area of low pressure will intensify in the central plains today and move northward into Minnesota.  That mid-latitude cyclone will pull Gulf of Mexico moisture northward into the cold air and produce snow for many in the upper Midwest.

6:00 AM Surface Analysis
6:00 AM Surface Analysis

That low pressure center should be located in NW Missouri this afternoon and continue to move northward.  Most of the snow today through sunset will be located in South Dakota and southern Minnesota.  North Dakota will record most of the snow after sunset, overnight, with some wrap-a-round light snow on Tuesday.

Projected 3PM Monday, November 30, 2015 Surface Map
Projected 3PM Monday, November 30, 2015 Surface Map

 

The low will be winding down on Tuesday, especially by afternoon with only light pockets of snow anticipated by afternoon.

 

Tuesday 6 PM
Tuesday, December 1, 2015 Surface Map and precipitation

 

Unlike a vast majority of snow events during our cold season, this snow will not be followed by a surge of cold air, in fact, it will get mild after the snow.  Granted, the snow pack, which will be a few inches in several locations in eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota will temper the maximum potential somewhat, high temperatures in the 30s are foreseen much of, if not the entire week ahead.  This will mean quickly improved road conditions (although lousy tonight into tomorrow) and some melting of the snow each day.

Projected Temperature Anomalies from Average on Friday, December 4, 2015
Projected Temperature Anomalies from Average on Friday, December 4, 2015

 

Temperatures look to be in the 5° to 10° above average this range and with average maximums in the mid to upper 20s this time of year, that will be 30s with the warmest locations that areas that record little if any snow fall with this event.  Which would be far northern and central and western North Dakota.  The eastern part of the state into northwestern Minnesota likely recording the lowest temperatures this week because of the highest snow totals.

Beyond this snow event, it looks dry into early next week.  So once the snow begins later today, there will be about 24 hours of snow, then little precipitation if any is foreseen for the next week with mild conditions.

Daryl Ritchison