3/13/15: Two Fronts

A cold front has now pushed south across most of North Dakota.  Behind the front the air mass is not exceptionally cold, but certainly colder than it has been much of this week.

1 PM Surface Analysis
1 PM Surface Analysis

 

Plus behind the front has been some stubborn stratocumulus clouds that has also hindered any temperature raise during the day so far.  These clouds appear to be remaining in place the rest of the afternoon.

North_Dakota.vis
12:45 PM Satellite

Therefore the locations with temperatures in the 30s will likely remain near those levels, plus other locations even with some sunshine will likely not climb all that much the rest of the afternoon.

1:30 PM Temperatures
1:30 PM Temperatures

Although the temperatures today are cooler than recent maximums most locations will still record temperatures well above seasonal norms.  With the warm temperatures this week, the snow has now disappeared across the state with some exceptions near the international border.  Although the snow has melted the main and minor drainage channels are still frozen meaning the melt has not caused many changes to most streams and rivers, but that process will complete itself soon.  Yet, with the lack of snow this winter, it is likely most channels will stay below flood stage from the spring melt.

Fargo River Level
Fargo River Level

The weekend looks warmer with temperatures on Saturday similar to the maximums recorded on Thursday and on Sunday temperatures will be even warmer.   In fact, on Sunday high temperatures of 70° are possible even in southeastern North Dakota, although, the traditional warmer locations in southwestern North Dakota will likely record the highest temperatures that day.  Western South Dakota may even reach 80°.

But a significant cold front is expected Sunday night.  On Sunday night into Monday morning that will be some light precipitation that falls in the form of light rain and or a mix of light rain and snow, but amounts in either form look very light.  Most of next week will be cooler, but because of the lack of snow cover, temperatures will still be 5 to 10 degrees above normal on many days and on the cooler days (like Monday) the highs will be near seasonal normals.

Little if any moisture is foreseen for the next 10 days meaning our dry spell is expected to continue through the near term.

 

Daryl Ritchison