4/24/15: Warming into May

Overnight there were a few pockets of 0.10″ to 0.20″ of rain, with most locations recording far less or no rain at at all.

April 24 rain
Overnight Rain Fall (April 23 and 24, 2015)

 

The rain as of 8:00 AM this morning was moving out of North Dakota and it appear that any redevelopment today or continuation of the rain will be in South Dakota or Minnesota the rest of the day.

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Projected Radar for Friday, April 24, 2015

 

The next threat of rain is coming on late Monday into Tuesday morning as a weak disturbance moves through the state.  Otherwise, the main change in the weather will be a significant warm up projected for next week as a ridge of high pressure aloft builds into the northern plains.

Projected 500 mb heights and anomalies for Thursday, April 30 at 7:00 PM
Projected 500 mb heights and anomalies for Thursday, April 30 at 7:00 PM (European  WMO- Essential)

As that upper-level ridge moves back over the upper-Midwest, warmer than average temperatures are projected.  Whereas much of this week the temperatures have averaged a good 5° to 10° below normal,  next week into early May the temperatures should be 5° to 10° above average.

Temperature Anomalies from Average for the period of April 29 through May 4
Temperature Anomalies from Average for the period of April 29 through May 4

 

Although there may be, like next Monday Night/Tuesday, some light rain in spots, but not enough to hold back planting for very long, so it would appears that most of “Plant 15” will be completed during the first week or so of May.

Looking at the ensemble members (multiple numerical predictions using slightly different initial conditions) from both the GFS (Global Forecast System, American) and the ECMWF (European Center Midrange Weather Forecast) all seem to indicated below normal rainfall for the first 10 days of May.  So warmer, with minimal precipitation is projected for the next two weeks with above average temperatures.

Daryl Ritchison