6/1/15: The First Week of Summer

June 1 starts the official summer climatic statistics.  You can see the previous blog posting for May specific statistics and later at this site for some Spring 2015 summaries.  The first week of June may feel like summer on occasion, but a persistence of warm and dry does not look to be in the cards this week.

In the short term, another threat of thunderstorms later today (Monday) into Tuesday.  The thunderstorms today are expected to develop near an area of low pressure that is developing in Montana/Wyoming that will then move easterly across North Dakota on Tuesday.

current
Morning Surface Analysis

The thunderstorms are expected to develop near the North Dakota / Montana border with movement to the east.  The storms will likely slowly fade away as they move into the eastern one-half of North Dakota, but some early Tuesday morning convection will likely be on going as Tuesday begins.

Monday, June 1, 2015 Projected Rain Fall
Monday, June 1, 2015 Projected Rain Fall

 

The storms that do form this afternoon in eastern Montana and western North Dakota should have at least some severe weather associated with them.  The Storm Prediction Center does have a slight risk of severe weather in central and western North Dakota into much of the southern portion of Montana.

Day 1 Convective Outlook (From SPC)
Day 1 Convective Outlook (From SPC)

As that low pressure center moves easterly in the next 24 hours and intensifies, another round of thunderstorms and severe weather is expected on Tuesday.  Tomorrow is likely going to produce more widespread rain as well as more severe weather.

Tuesday
4:00 PM Progged Surface Analysis for Tuesday, June 2, 2015

 

This will likely be fine tuned but the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has much of the northern plains in a slight to enhanced risk of severe weather tomorrow (June 2).

Day 2 SPC Severe Outlook
Day 2 SPC Severe Outlook

Not only will there probably be some severe weather tomorrow, which in turn will probably be the first severe weather of the season of consequence, there will also be the potential for localized heavy rain (1-2″+).  The emphasis should be on those totals will be localized or in tight linear line whereas most rain gauges will probably stay in the 0.25 inch to 0.75 inch range.

Beyond tomorrow will come a cold front Tuesday night with cooler air Wednesday through Friday.  Some afternoon showers (thundershowers) possible on Wednesday with daytime heating, but otherwise, much of the area looks dry Wednesday through Friday with another threat of thunderstorms on Saturday.   Temperatures near or above average Today and Tomorrow, then near to below average Wednesday through Friday.

Daryl Ritchison