6/4/15: Western Showers

There are some showers this morning in southwestern North Dakota.  This activity is moving north on the western flank (near Bowman) and moving more easterly on the southern flank.  Precipitation amounts look light (Near or under 0.25″), but the cloudiness associated with this rain will keep temperatures quite low for early June in that part of the state.

9:00 AM Radar CDT June 4, 2015.  Bowman Radar
9:00 AM Radar CDT June 4, 2015. Bowman Radar

 

Elsewhere, a clear or clearing sky is present, but even in those locations some cloud cover is expected to develop or move in, therefore, a mix of sun and clouds may end up ruling the day.

9:00 AM Satellite
9:00 AM Satellite

That cloudiness shows up well in the projected maximums across the state via the NAM-WRF 4 km computer guidance with temperatures perhaps remaining in the 50s in the SW corner of North Dakota with mainly 70s anticipated elsewhere.

June 4 2015 Projected Maximums
June 4 2015 Projected Maximums

After the disturbance today and perhaps some spotty showers forming in the locations that are currently sunny or will record some sunshine today, the next threat of rain and really the one widespread event foreseen in the next 7 days will come later tomorrow into especially Saturday.

An area of low pressure will move across the region on Friday night through Saturday triggering off thunderstorms.  It appears that western North Dakota will see rain on Friday Night and then eastern North Dakota western Minnesota recording some potential rain on Saturday morning, with storms redeveloping later Saturday into Saturday evening.

7:00 AM Surface Analysis and 3 hour Precip
7:00 AM Surface Analysis and 3 hour Precip

By Sunday morning that low is progged to me near the Twin Cities bringing dry weather back into North Dakota into western Minnesota that should last for several days.

Sunday 7:00 AM Surface Analysis and 3 hour precip
Sunday 7:00 AM Surface Analysis and 3 hour precip

 

Beyond that thunderstorm threat on Saturday (certainly some severe weather is probable) a stretch of warm/dry/sunny weather is expected Sunday through Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure builds across the northern plain (and Rocky Mtns).

Monday, 7:00 PM Jetstream Prog
Monday, 7:00 PM Jetstream Prog

Beyond the warm June 7 to 10 period, looks to be another cooler period from June 11 through the 15.  Looking even beyond that, I still think June will finish slightly above average in the temperature department for the state of North Dakota.  Summer will come….

Daryl Ritchison