6/5/15: Saturday Thunder, briefly “Hot”

Yesterday, the rain in southwestern ND as expected dropped generally under 0.25 inches.  As that moved east into drier air although the radar may have looked impressive at times, the lower layers of the atmosphere were quite dry and many locations only recorded a trace, which means a zero in a tipping gauge as it was not enough to tip to 0.01 inches.

June 4, 2015 Rain Totals
June 4, 2015 Rain Totals

Although some spotty showers are clearly possible today, a vast majority of North Dakota will see a fairly cloudy day (or turning that way) with out any measurable rain.  But the cloud cover will suppress the temperature potential and with abundant cloud cover high temperatures only in the lower 70s are expected.

Tonight, an area of low pressure will move out of the northern Rockies into western South Dakota.  Showers and thunderstorms in turn will move into western North Dakota.

1:00 AM Saturday, June 6 Surface Map and 3 hour precipitation potential
1:00 AM Saturday, June 6 Surface Map and 3 hour precipitation potential

Some of that precipitation in turn may work into eastern North Dakota by morning, but it will be the redevelopment in the afternoon that will more than likely create the higher potential from this storm.

Saturday 4:00 PM Surface analysis projection and 3 hour precipitation potential
Saturday 4:00 PM Surface analysis projection and 3 hour precipitation potential

Overall, 0.25 inches to 0.75 inches will be common from this event, and clearly some areas will see very little moisture, just the nature of thunderstorms, but there will also be higher totals as well.  Likely a narrow band of 1+ inch rain will develop with the Highway 200 as of this writing perhaps being that line based on the current projected track of the low.  This storm does not appear to be strengthening to the level of some of the events that occurred in June.

Once that storm moves out of the area, there may be some wrap-a-round showers that develop Sunday afternoon near the northern Red River Valley, otherwise, Sunday will be the beginnings of a brief, but impressive warm up.  Although Sunday maximums may only be near 80°,  Monday and Tuesday the high temperatures should get into the 80s and perhaps well into the 80s across some portions of North Dakota and western Minnesota each day.

You always need to take raw model output with a small grain of salt, but below is the projected maximums Monday and Tuesday across the region and at this point I do believe these may be reasonably close.

Monday June 8, 2015 Maximum Temperature Projection
Monday June 8, 2015 Maximum Temperature Projection

 

Tuesday June 9, 2015 Maximum Temperature Projection
Tuesday June 9, 2015 Maximum Temperature Projection

Wednesday, June 10 the maximums will probably be in the 70s and the beginning of several days of cooler weather.  The June 11 through 15 period is foreseen as having below normal temperatures, but as we get into the second half of the month, above average (at least slightly) are anticipated still at this time.

Precipitation is much more difficult to project long range as it “only takes on storm” to make a forecast bust, but with the main upper-level wind flow more likely to be from the west or the northwest in the next couple of weeks, after the Saturday storm, precipitation amounts from each individual storm should not produce excessive rain to the degree that would occur with an upper-level flow from the southwest that in turn advects moisture from the Gulf of Mexico up to our area.

Daryl Ritchison