6/8/15: The Week Ahead

The cold front and the associated low pressure center that helped induce the rain and thunderstorms over the weekend has now moved well to the southeast of the region.

6:00 AM June 8, 2015 Surface Analysis
6:00 AM June 8, 2015 Surface Analysis

A west/northwesterly surface flow today will continue the warmth that many locations recorded yesterday with maximums in the 80° plus category across much of the NDAWN mesonet.  High temperatures today should be similar in eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota, but western North Dakota is expected to be much warmer than yesterday.

June 7, 2015 Maximums
June 7, 2015 Maximums

Maximum temperatures are expected to be in the 80 to 85° range in eastern North Dakota/NW Minnesota and 85 to 90° in western North Dakota.  Western North Dakota has potential for the elusive 90° reading today if the clouds can stay away.

Maximum Projection from the RAP 13 km Computer guidance
Maximum Projection from the RAP 13 km Computer guidance

 

A cold front will bring in cooler air for much of the area on Tuesday, but because the front will not reach southern North Dakota until early afternoon, especially southeastern North Dakota will likely record temperatures well into the 80s on tomorrow.  Then all location cooling off during the Wednesday through Friday time frame with highs mostly in the 70s.

Tuesday 1 PM Surface Analysis, 3 hour precipitation
Tuesday 1 PM Surface Analysis, 3 hour precipitation

 

If the clouds can stay away long enough, the southern Red River Valley and other locations near the South Dakota border could record the first 90° maximum in those locations in 2015.

Tuesday, June 9, 2015 Maximum Projections from the NAM/WRF Guidance
Tuesday, June 9, 2015 Maximum Projections from the NAM/WRF Guidance

 

Speaking of the clouds, the cold front should trigger at least some thunderstorm activity as it moves across the state.  With warm temperatures in the mid-levels of the atmosphere in combination with the source region of the front and lack of moisture, the storms are not expected to be widespread at this time, but the front will bring in cooler air that will linger for much of the week.

There will be a more significant storm system coming in out of the Rocky Mountains on Thursday, but with cool high pressure over North  Dakota and northern Minnesota, the rain from that storm appears to be remaining in South Dakota and southern Minnesota.  Of course that means locations near the South Dakota / North Dakota border may get close to that moisture but at this time not much is expected.  Another threat of thunderstorms seems to be on the horizon for Saturday but it does not appear to be a storm of the magnitude of what has hit the region in recent weeks.

In turn, this means that a high percentage of North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota is expected to record more evaporation than precipitation this week.  It will be locations to our south that will record the more significant moisture this week.

After the above average temperatures today and tomorrow.  Near to slightly below average temperatures are projected from Wednesday through Saturday, with temperatures near to above average arriving back into North Dakota Sunday into next Wednesday once again.

Daryl Ritchison