9/18/15: Warming up

Both this morning (Friday) and Saturday morning the prospect for lows in the 30s was foreseen.   The anticipation was for some locations to drop into the upper half of the 30s with mostly 40s for lows.   This morning, that was generally the case, although, there is almost always going to be exceptions and that was certainly the case this morning.

minimums
9/18/15: Minimums

 

Probably the main exception was at the Brampton, ND NDAWN station where the low was reported as 32°, but overall, much of North Dakota recorded a low in the 40s.  It still appears there will be lows in the 30s on Saturday AM (upper side for most), then a warm up is projected.  As written about in the previous blog it appears that the first widespread frost will be another week away, probably toward the very end of September or around October 1.

Southwestern North Dakota overall had the warmest low temperatures that were associated with cloud cover.  That cloud cover also was producing some rainfall and that rain is spreading eastward across southern North Dakota this morning.

Early AM Radar from Bismarck Doppler
Early AM Radar from Bismarck Doppler

 

The rain is associated with a weak area of low pressure that will be moving across South Dakota today.

8:00 AM Surface Analysis
8:00 AM Surface Analysis

The surface reflection is that of a weak low pressure center, but aloft there is a fairly strong disturbance with widespread cloudiness and a classic comma shaped cloud.  With abundant cloud cover, even in locations where no rain will fall today (most of North Dakota and northern Minnesota), the cloud cover will suppress temperatures with maximums only expected to be in the 60s today, with probably just upper 50s in far south central and southeastern North Dakota where it will rain lightly.

8:00 AM IR Satellite Image
8:00 AM IR Satellite Image

With the cool temperatures today and a clearing sky tonight, there is no surprise it will be a chilly Saturday morning, but otherwise, a warming trend is expected in the near term.  70s tomorrow, around 80 on Sunday in many locations with some lower 80s expected Monday and Tuesday before a trend toward slightly cooler air begins once again thereafter.  Yet, no extremely cold conditions for the time of year (well below average) is expected until we get toward the very end of September as previously noted.

Of course, some precipitation will be falling mainly south of I94 today, but overall, precipitation amounts looks light, under 0.25 inch.  Otherwise, it looks like additional precipitation will hold off until the middle of next week with even that probably will be a hit and miss situation, meaning, generally dry for now, although, I am leaning strongly toward a wetter pattern as we get closer to, or into October.

Daryl Ritchison