9/21/15: A New Week

An area of low pressure was situated in central Manitoba moving northeasterly early Monday morning.  That track will bring a surge of warm air across the region today with maximums expected to reach the 80s with some locations around 90° this afternoon across central and eastern North Dakota.

7:00 AM Surface Analysis
7:00 AM Surface Analysis

 

The cold front attached to the low pressure center will work southeasterly today and likely move into northwestern North Dakota this afternoon meaning that area will probably record maximums in the 70s.

NAM-WRF Simulated Maximums for Monday September 21, 2015
NAM-WRF Simulated Maximums for Monday September 21, 2015

 

Well behind the front in Saskatchewan maximums with only be in the 50s today and it is that air mass that will be over North Dakota into northern Minnesota on Tuesday.  High temperatures tomorrow mostly in the 50s and some portions of northern North Dakota in particular may stay in the upper 50s where the cloud cover will be the thickest, plus some light rain showers may also aid in keeping the temperatures suppressed.

NAM-WRF 4 km simulated maximums for Tuesday, September 22, 2015
NAM-WRF 4 km simulated maximums for Tuesday, September 22, 2015

 

Although there will be some rain activity on Tuesday, it appears scattered and light at this time.

Simulated Radar Returns for Tuesday, September 22, 2015 at 4 PM CDT
Simulated Radar Returns for Tuesday, September 22, 2015 at 4 PM CDT

 

There appears to be a much more significant threat of precipitation on Tuesday Night into Wednesday morning as an area of low pressure moves along the cold front that will still be in the area during that time frame from Colorado.  That storm will move across South Dakota into southern Minnesota.  Rain and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the low pressure center meaning Tuesday night into Wednesday morning appear to be the best time frame for the moisture to work through the area with locations near and south of Interstate 94 having the highest likelihood for precipitation to develop.

Wednesday, September 23, 2015 7:00 AM Projected Surface Map
Wednesday, September 23, 2015 7:00 AM Projected Surface Map

 

Beyond that time frame, it looks dry, Thursday through the Weekend with warmer temperatures returning.  After another day in the 60s on Wednesday, Thursday it appears 70s will return, with 80 or beyond Friday and 80s possible this weekend before another cool down with a threat of moisture early next week.  For the most part the very warm September will continue for another week with a brief interlude of cool tomorrow and Wednesday.

Daryl Ritchison