9/30/15: Moving into October

There will be some scattered showers in the region in the next 24 hours.  Most of these will be between the Missouri River and the Red River Valley.  Precipitation amounts generally very light in the locations that do record any measurable rain.  Otherwise, the dry weather looks to be continuing through the weekend.

High Resolution Rapid Refresh Future Radar
High Resolution Rapid Refresh Future Radar

 

Until early next week, a ridge (warmth) will be situated over southern Canada that will gradually shift east (with implications of Joaquin track) and gradually replaced by the trough (stormy) along the west coast that will eventually swing into the upper Midwest early next week with that next threat of rain.  Another trough should develop thereafter and bring another threat of rain perhaps around mid October.  This is the pattern “change” that has been talked about that would be possible as we moved into October.  These storms may bring little rain, or may be more significant rains (excess of 0.75″), but as for now, these are the periods to watch for rain potential.

500 mb ECMWF WMO Essential next 10 days
500 mb ECMWF WMO Essential next 10 days

Temperatures are expected overall to be near average or slightly above for the time of year.

Daryl Ritchison