9/4/15: Scattered

Maximums yesterday were around 100° at many of the NDAWN (North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network) stations in central North Dakota.  Although it was thought of as cool in comparison to other locations, mid 80s were recorded in the northwestern part of the state.  That was the beginning of a cooling trend that will gradually overtake the entire region.

September 3, 2015 Maximums
September 3, 2015 Maximums

The cooler air is associated with a cold front that is slowly working to the east.  Although the front is currently in central North Dakota, it may not push into Minnesota until later on Saturday.  This will mean a significant difference in air temperature as well as the weather in the next 48 hours across the region.  Western North Dakota will be cool and dry, eastern North Dakota and Minnesota warm and humid with thunderstorms.  Central North Dakota still “warmish” today with a threat of thunderstorms, but then cooler and dry Saturday through much of next week.

7:00 AM Weather Map
7:00 AM Weather Map

There are showers and thunderstorms this morning already in central and western North Dakota, with very isolated cells in the east.  These storms are expected to move slow eastward today.

Morning Radar through 7:30 AM
Morning Radar through 7:30 AM

 

High Resolution Rapid Refresh Guidance, although likely not perfect, especially in the Red River Valley, does show a the trend for thunderstorms later today into this evening.  Some severe thunderstorms probably occurring.  Rainfall highly variable, but odds are much areas under 0.50″, but those isolated spots would record much higher amounts (typical of thunderstorms).

HRRR Future Radar
HRRR Future Radar

 

Saturday will record similar weather.  Warm in the Red River Valley, most of North Dakota much cooler with highs in the 70s, but in the valley in the 80s again, humid with a threat of thunderstorms later in the day into Saturday Night.  By Sunday maybe the Valley could get as warm as the lower 80s, but a much cooler day is expected and then all parts of the NDAWN weather stations recording maximums in the 70s by Monday with some 60s possible early next week in some locations.

Rain threats mainly later today, and later Saturday.  Otherwise, only isolated precipitation expected with next week overall looking dry with a cooler air mass in place.

Daryl Ritchison