Crop and Pest Report: June 2, 2016

The June 2 through June 8, 2016 Weather Outlook

 

This is my submission in the June 2, 2016 Crop and Pest Report:

 

The last ten days of May recorded significant rain for some parts of North Dakota, but certainly not for everyone.  In fact, greater than 50% of the state recorded below normal rainfall in May.  Yet, the heavier rain bands that did form were associated with mid-latitude cyclones (low pressure centers).   Strong “lows” tend to become less common as we move into the summer months across the northern plains as the temperature contrasts across the Northern Hemisphere weaken as the high latitudes gradually warm up.

 Figure 1. 500 mb (18,000 ft) Anomalies from June 4 through June 8, 2016       Use with permission from Weatherbell Analytics
Figure 1. 500 mb (18,000 ft) Anomalies from June 4 through June 8, 2016       Use with permission from Weatherbell Analytics

As we begin the month of June, no strong low pressure systems are expected as the upper-level wind flow transitions to the northwest (Figure 1, wind flow is parallel to the black lines).   Instead, rainy periods in the next 6-10 days will come principally from frontal systems passing through the region.  These fronts will trigger storms, but usually in this pattern, any significant rain totals tend to be in localized areas instead of in broad bands.  Although isolated afternoon development may occur on other days, the main rain chances will come Thursday Night into Friday and again toward the middle of next week.

Temperatures in the next seven days are projected to be near seasonal averages through the weekend, with the potential for well above average temperatures developing next week.  The projected Growing Degree Days (GDDs), base 34°, 44° and 50° for the period June 2 through June 8, 2016 are presented in Figure 2.  This forecast period will likely produce the highest GDD total of any week so far this growing season.

CPR-June1-2016-BaseALL

Daryl Ritchison