The May 12 through May 18, 2016 Weather Outlook
The weather for the next several days can be summed up in two words, cold and dry. Cold enough that frost will probably occur over some parts of North Dakota on each of the next several mornings. Therefore, a reminder to some of the terms you will be hearing in the next few days; a frost advisory is issued when temperatures are expected to reach 36° or colder. A freeze warning is for expected temperatures to reach 32° or colder and a hard freeze warning is issued when tempertures are projected to reach 28° or lower.
Temperatures are anticipated to be 10 to 20 degrees below seasonal averages through the weekend (Figure 1). The central and western parts of North Dakota already experienced a very chilly morning on Wednesday and that colder air will be reinforced today (Thursday) as a cold front moves through the region. With the colder air will come a brisk northwesterly wind that may cause soil erosion problems in locations that did not record much precipitation earlier this week. That colder air will remain in the area for several days and with it the already mentioned prospect for frost each morning through at least Sunday. Plus, with some cloudiness, maximums may only be in the 40s in some locations this weekend. Temperatures should get back closer to average next week.
That cloudiness at times, may leak out a few very light showers, or I would hate to say it, a flurry, especially on Saturday, but overall, little if any moisture is foreseen through the middle of next week and it may be the May 23 to May 26 period before a more significant rain maker impacts the region. Because of the well below average temperatures the next several days, the projected Growing Degree Days (GDDs), base 50°, 44° and 34° for the period May 12 through May 18, 2016 will be quite meager during the next 7 days (Figure 2).