Short range forecasts in the 7 to 10 day range are often accurate enough to allow preparations to be made before the occurrence of a change in weather. This proactive approach leads to savings, both financially and in potential human impacts. The benefits of proactive approaches are clear, yet become more difficult the farther into the future you try to forecast. Our current El Nino for example is not the type that tends to bring warm and dry conditions that are often associated with the warming of the equatorial Pacific. Instead, the modoki El Nino currently in place tends to have harsh late winters, just like we had this year and was expected by some forecasters.