May 13: Next 5 Days

There has been much “buzz” about the next round of precipitation to move North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota.  In the short term (today and tomorrow) there will be two disturbances that will bring rainfall.

Overnight Rainfall via NDAWN
Overnight Rainfall through 8:30 AM May 13, 2015

The first disturbance started to bring some rain into portions of North Dakota during the evening of May 12, 2015.  Through early this morning (May 13) amounts were generally under 0.10 inches with a few exceptions.

There will be additional rain during the day with northeastern North Dakota into far northwestern Minnesota likely recording the highest overall totals today.

Projected Radar for Wednesday, May 13, 2015 via the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Computer Guidance.
Projected Radar for Wednesday, May 13, 2015 via the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Computer Guidance.

Rainfall totals will be generally around 0.25 inches from this disturbance but locations in northeastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota may see pockets of 0.50 inch amounts.

Projected Rainfall for Wednesday, May 13, 2015
Projected Rainfall for Wednesday, May 13, 2015

 

The rain that will be impacting the area on Thursday will have potential to bring in some slightly higher totals.  The best areas for rain beyond 0.25 inches on Thursday will be from near Ashely through Jamestown up into northeastern ND and far northwestern Minnesota and another wave from Sioux Falls to central Minnesota, near Saint Cloud.

36 hour Total Precipitation Projection from the NAM-WRF 4 km
36 hour Total Precipitation Projection from the NAM-WRF 4 km

 

The NAM-WRF 4 km resolution guidance seems to have a good handle on what will transpire, but of the specifics localized spots are always going to vary (so don’t take the graphic literally).  But the two corridors I mentioned would be the areas where an additional 0.50 inches or more will likely fall.   After the precipitation tomorrow, Friday looks dry, fairly sunny and mild with temps in the 60s, maybe even a few lower 70s, then the next more powerful storm arrives on later Saturday into early Monday AM with the highest percentage of the rain arriving Saturday Night through Sunday evening.

The next storm, like the one from earlier in the week, should produce bands of 1 to 2 inches of rain with the storm looking to produced the higher totals a bit farther north than last time.  So instead of south of I94, this next storm may produce the heaviest band closer to US Highway 2.  It should be a widespread rain, but  the location of the  2 inch + totals are still uncertain, but the odds are favor farther north this time.

Daryl Ritchison