Thursday Outlook: A Bit Drier

Let us start with rain totals for the last 24 hours.  The top graphic is the rain totals since midnight CST (1 AM Daylight time).  The second graphic is rain totals from yesterday.  You will notice that most reports were under one inch, yet, there were localized area much higher.  The hardest hit locations were south central North Dakota, Jamestown and points south along Highway 281 and around Wahpeton into northeastern SD and west central Minnesota.

yesterday

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Cocorahs

 

Here is a list of other rain totals I have collected this morning:

  • Ashley, ND                                       3.61″
  • Dwight, ND                                       2.65″
  • Jamestown, ND                                2.45″
  • Great Bend, ND                                2.50″
  • 2 mi S of Breckenridge, MN              2.80″
  • 6 mi N of Breckenridge, MN              2.70″
  • 6 Mi ENE of Wolverton                      1.00″
  • KRJB in Ada, MN                               0.69″

The surface map this morning shows at least some movement of the system that has plagued the area the past several days.

NGP.fronts

The stationary front near Interstate 90 is slowly moving to the east as well as the areas of low pressure associated with it.  That trend should continue through the day.  The main threat of rain with embedded thunderstorms will be over far eastern North Dakota today, with more widespread rain in Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and other nearby locations.

Simulated radar returns for 4:00 PM (CDT) today from the HRRR model shows thunderstorms in Minnesota and Iowa with localized heavy rain once again, but in eastern North Dakota most of the activity with be showers with totals under 0.25″ for most locations that do it hit.

hrrr_ref_mw_11

WIth abundant cloud cover today, upper 60s to low 70s will be the highs with a west wind in western North Dakota and a south/southeastern wind in eastern North Dakota.  With an area of low pressure overhead, the wind should be fairly light in eastern ND much of the day, but increase out of the west in western ND where it may become quite breezy this afternoon.

After today, just spotty showers or a thunderstorm expected the next several days (Friday through Tuesday) with highs most days from 75° to 80° with lows mainly in the 50s.  So will it be perfectly dry?  Probably not, but a period where evaporation should greatly exceed additional moisture.  Next threat of a more significant and widespread event looks to be around next Wednesday.

Daryl Ritchison