3/30/15: This Week

A weak disturbance is passing through northern North Dakota and northern Minnesota today.  A large area of cloudiness is associated with this feature with some light rain showers.  This will continue to move to the southeast and be out of all of North Dakota during the early part of the afternoon.  Otherwise, expecting a mostly sunny sky with high temperatures 60+ from around Minot to Carrington to a Fargo line and points west and south.  Cooler air plus additional clouds forming will keep temperatures lower in northeastern North Dakota.

North_Dakota.vis
12:30 PM Satellite

 

Behind the initial cloud band there may be some additional rain showers that reform in northeastern North Dakota through northern and central Minnesota associated with daytime heating and leftover unstable air in those areas.    The additional activity looks very much hit and miss.

 

Progged Radar Returns for Monday, March 30, 2015
Progged Radar Returns for Monday, March 30, 2015

 

Because the storm track and the corresponding jetstream is riding near the US/Canadian border and the ridge in the northern Rocky Mountains is forecasted to move east over North Dakota, the northern plains will stay on the mild side of any storms in the next 72-84 hours.  Meaning well above average temperatures in the short term.

7:00 PM March 30, 2015 Jetstream projection
7:00 PM March 30, 2015 Jetstream projection

 

A fairly strong areas of low pressure will move across southern Canada in the next three days.  Most of North Dakota is expected to remain dry and warm during the storm progression during this time frame.  Some wrap-a-round light rain or snow may impact locations across far northern North Dakota on Wednesday Night into Thursday but any precipitation looks to be minimal.

Progged Wednesday, April 1, 2015 Surface Analysis, Precipitation and 850 millibar temperatures
Progged Wednesday, April 1, 2015 Surface Analysis, Precipitation and 850 millibar temperatures

Once this storm moves into Ontario on Thursday, colder air will begin to move into the upper Midwest and bring temperatures back to near seasonal norms for Friday through the weekend.

There will be at least some threat of precipitation on Sunday, but like many events lately, precipitation totals look light.   If that storm system tracks through South Dakota as it currently appears, then North Dakota will continue cool from Friday through at least the middle of next week.  No persistent periods of more than a few days of well above or below temperatures is foreseen through the first half of April.  Meaning our fairly typical spring pattern of many ups and downs looks to continue with minimal precipitation.  The above average days should out number the below average days meaning over-all trend will be for above normal temperatures through mid-April.

Daryl Ritchison