As you’re reading this (if it is on Friday), it is already raining in parts of the upper Midwest and that rain will eventually become more widespread later today into Saturday morning. We will find out for sure in the next 24 hours, but this rain will likely end much of the talk about many needing some rain. I doubt it will in all areas as all storms have winners and losers. But with April only averaging 1 to 1.5” of rain, this month could be the first month in a long time to record above average moisture in a broad rather than isolated areas. This should set the stage for adequate moisture for planting, with concerns then transitioning toward a late frost becoming the bigger concern in the next few weeks.
The forecasting problem for the next 24 hours, is really where the main band of rain will set up. Below is guidance from the NAM-WRF and shows some huge differences from 1.5 inches to very little in short distances. If you follow me on twitter (@darylritchison) you will know for the last several days I have been leaning toward west of the Red River Valley for the main band, although, like the graphic below suggest, the northern valley may get into the band of better rains. Either way, most locations will at least get some moisture and if you get into that main band, 1 inch plus rains will probably occur.